‘Compound shock effect’: why the Middle East crisis and El Niño could spell disaster in south-east Asia

The Strait of Hormuz, largely closed for months due to Middle East tensions, has disrupted energy and fertilizer supplies to Southeast Asia, forcing governments to implement emergency measures including reduced work weeks and lower air-conditioning settings. United Nations experts warn of a "compound shock effect" as the economic fallout from regional conflict combines with a severe El Niño, threatening millions of tonnes of global food supplies.

Southeast Asian nations rely heavily on the waterway: 60% of crude oil imports and one-third of gas imports come from the Middle East, with annual energy import bills projected at $160 billion. Agriculture accounts for nearly 10% of global agricultural exports from the region. Iran has threatened to close the strait and impose maritime fees if Israeli attacks on Hezbollah continue, a move the International Maritime Organization warns would set a "dangerous precedent."