Strong global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including semiconductors and servers, lifted merchandise trade growth to 3.9% in 2026—more than double earlier forecasts—according to the World Trade Organization's October outlook. However, Middle Eastern conflict disrupted energy supplies and shipping, cutting crude oil exports 24% and natural gas exports 47%, while reducing commercial services trade growth forecast to 3.3% from 4.8% as international tourism and transport faced mounting pressure.
AI-related goods accounted for nearly half of merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with semiconductor and server trade rising 67% year-on-year. Alternative suppliers and rerouted shipments cushioned the wider impact: global container throughput rose 3.9%, and fertilizer imports remained near historical averages despite regional disruption. The WTO projects global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, vulnerable to continued energy price spikes and transport route interruptions.
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