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Why is Trump risking midterm disaster by resuming an already unpopular war with Iran?

The Guardian · July 18, 2026

President Donald Trump ordered renewed military strikes against Iran less than a month after signing a ceasefire agreement in June, prompting retaliation from Iranian forces against U.S. Gulf allies. Political analysts and former officials warn the escalation risks prolonging an unpopular conflict ahead of November's midterm elections, with some suggesting it could ultimately lead to a land invasion of Iranian territory and damage Republican electoral prospects.

The agreement, signed at the Palace of Versailles on June 17, faced fierce criticism from Republican neoconservatives who opposed its terms. Trump concluded the memorandum of understanding had failed and authorized fresh strikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets after Iran responded with drone and missile attacks against regional U.S. allies.

Experts including Curt Mills of the American Conservative and former State Department adviser Nate Swanson expressed concern that the renewed conflict contradicts Trump's "America First" platform and could prove electorally damaging four months before midterm voting. They warned the escalation risks uncontrolled military expansion similar to the "forever wars" Trump previously criticized.

Quwwaa's summary, drawn from reporting by The Guardian. Read the full story at The Guardian →

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