America Will Have Less Influence in the Middle East. Is That So Bad?

The United States should reduce its military footprint in the Middle East following the Iran war, according to defense policy specialists Becca Wasser and Dina Esfandiary. They argue that American bases in the region are increasingly vulnerable to Iran's advanced missiles and drones, with at least 81 aircraft damaged and 21 service members killed. Rather than rebuild an outmoded Cold War-era military posture, Washington should reshape its presence to focus on core interests, allowing Gulf states to develop independent security arrangements and reducing U.S. involvement in unpopular regional conflicts.

The authors contend that ceding some American influence in the Middle East need not harm U.S. security interests. They acknowledge the strategy will frustrate regional partners and impose financial costs, but argue the benefits—avoiding costly entanglement in regional wars and freeing resources for other priorities—justify the shift. The Trump administration's contradictory approach, which reduced the stated Iran threat while waging war against Tehran, has exposed the risks of maintaining a large military presence within range of improving Iranian capabilities.