Are Europe’s extreme summers the new normal? What the science says

Europe is experiencing historically extreme summer heat, with temperatures hitting 40-44 Celsius across multiple countries in 2026, triggering thousands of deaths and infrastructure failures. A World Weather Attribution study found such intense heat is now tens to hundreds of times more likely than in 2003 and was virtually unknown 50 years ago. Scientists attribute the shift to global warming, which has warmed Europe at twice the global average since the 1980s, effectively making today's rare extremes ordinary by mid-century.

The immediate cause is a stalled high-pressure system or "heat dome" trapping heat for extended periods, but Europe's already-shifted baseline temperature means the same weather patterns now produce far hotter outcomes than decades past. Researchers warn heat-related mortality will remain a permanent feature of Europe's climate unless emissions significantly decrease. The WHO's regional director for Europe notes heat-related deaths have risen an average of 52 per million people annually since the 1990s, with last summer's heatwave alone causing an estimated 2,300 climate-related deaths across 12 European countries.