The global economy is muddling through against the odds. But a storm is coming | Larry Elliott

The global economy has remained resilient despite significant headwinds including regional wars, energy shocks, rising inflation, and US-China trade tensions, according to finance ministers and central bank governors gathered for the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Bangkok. Growth has been buoyed by massive artificial intelligence investment, strategic oil stockpile drawdowns, and cheap Chinese exports, but multiple flashpoints threaten stability ahead—including Middle East escalation, depleting energy reserves, manufacturing job losses in the West, and capital constraints outside the AI sector. IMF head Kristalina Georgieva and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey have warned governments to tighten fiscal policy, creating tension between political pressure for spending and bond market demands for deficit reduction.