Election Year Stock Market History: What the S&P 500 Has Done After Every Midterm Since 1874

The S&P 500 has climbed in the year following 32 of the last 38 midterm elections since 1874, averaging a 14% gain regardless of which party controls Congress or how many seats the president's party loses, according to Motley Fool analysis of historical election and market data. The market typically gains 4% in the six months before a midterm and 1.5% in the month prior, then cools to 0.5% gain in the month after balloting. The historical pattern suggests investors should focus on long-term fundamentals rather than trading on election results.