Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

Latvia's intelligence service warned Monday that Russia is preparing possible "provocation" against the Baltic states or Poland, potentially including hybrid attacks with missiles and drones designed to test NATO cohesion. A second NATO member made a similar assessment, suggesting Vladimir Putin may attempt to undermine Western support for Ukraine as Russia's military advance stalls.

The warnings come amid Russia's mounting pressure from Ukrainian long-range attacks near Moscow and St. Petersburg. Latvian officials said Russia lacks capacity for a full-scale second front but could conduct limited hybrid operations to signal costs for continued Western aid to Kyiv. Experts noted the alerts lack the detailed corroboration provided by U.S. and British intelligence before Russia's 2022 invasion.