Renewed Middle East conflict will buffet world economy, IMF warns

The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that renewed Middle East conflict poses "the most imminent risk" to global economic growth, as a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire deteriorates following fresh military strikes. Escalation could extend commodity price volatility, disrupt supply chains, raise inflation, and trigger social unrest in vulnerable economies, the IMF said. Global growth is projected at 3 percent in 2026, while headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 percent, partly offset by artificial intelligence investment gains.